The UK’s two major naval surface combatant programmes, the Type 26 and Type 31 frigates, have both been given an amber rating in the government’s Infrastructure and Projects Authority Annual Report 2023-24, published on 17 January 2025.
An amber rating means successful delivery appears feasible but significant issues already exist, requiring management attention. Such issues “appear resolvable at this stage and, if addressed promptly, should not present a cost or schedule overrun”, the report states.
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The exact nature of the “significant issues” is not mentioned, but both classes of frigate are urgently needed as the Royal Navy shrinks to its smallest size in living memory, with entire capabilities cut or at risk of being gapped.
Both the Type 26 and Type 31 frigate programmes have remained on amber for the past four reporting periods, with the latest being 2023/24.
The first-in-class of the Type 26 frigates, HMS Glasgow, is undergoing outfitting with manufacturer BAE Systems and is expected to be operational with the Royal Navy in the 2028 timeframe. An originally intended class of 13 vessels was cut to eight on cost grounds in 2015, with first steel cut for the fifth warship, HMS Sheffield, in November 2024.
In a bid to maintain fleet numbers through a like-for-like replacement of the outgoing Type 23 frigates, a new programme to deliver fight light patrol frigates was created, confirmed as the Type 31 class.
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By GlobalDataThe first-in-class of the Type 31 programme, HMS Venturer, is at an advanced stage of construction at Babcock’s Rosyth shipyard. Steel was cut for the future HMS Formidable, the third-in-class of the Type 31 programme, in October 2024, and potentially the first that will see the integration of the Mk 41 vertical launch system from Lockheed Martin, the beginning of a possible three-hull sub variant.
Other UK naval procurement, including the Dreadnought nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine and AUKUS nuclear-powered attack submarine, Fleet Solid Support, and Multi Role Support Ship programmes, were also given an amber rating in the report.
New depths reached for Royal Navy in 2025
With a former First Sea Lord firmly ensconced as Chief of the Defence Staff, the UK Royal Navy might have hoped that 2025 could offer some respite from the steady decline seen in 2023 and 2024, as years of austerity and real terms defence spending decline hit an already weakened force.
By the end of 2024, three of its Type 23 frigates had been axed in cuts, along with two amphibious assault ships, while the Royal Fleet Auxiliary also lost two tankers from its books, albeit vessels that had previously been placed into reserve.
Collisions between forward-based mine countermeasure vessels in Bahrain further reduced the Royal Navy, which is struggling to maintain presence in key areas of operations.
Analysis by Naval Technology indicates that 2025 will see the Royal Navy’s frigate fleet maintain a low of seven active hulls as life extension programmes are undertaken in a bid to keep vessels in service for as long as possible.
Frigate numbers will only hit double figures again by 2028 at the earliest, and only hitting the minimum requirement of 13 hulls by 2031. Of eight Type 23 frigates in the Royal Navy’s inventory, six are configured for anti-submarine warfare with a towed sonar array, with the two oldest remaining, HMS Lancaster and HMS Iron Duke, configured as general-purpose platforms.
Further pain could be coming the way of the Royal Navy as a looming spending crunch and anaemic growth in the UK economy looks set to see cuts of at least 5% across departments in 2025.
The upcoming Strategic Defence Review, due to be published in Spring, could well see the mothballing of the of the two Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers as a cost saving measure.
