Thirty years from now, the conventional design of surface warships will no doubt change.
So much, perhaps, that the concept of a single ‘multi-purpose’ vessel that performs a range of tasks may fall out of favour entirely.
Instead, it may be that systems will be distributed more widely across the fleet and the armed forces in a highly integrated, multi-domain context.
Crucially, all these distributed capabilities would contribute to a federated combat cloud environment where a stream of intelligence will inform joint military operations. For that reason, it was floated that the naval sector ought to ditch ship design for a system design approach.
At least, that is the rationale put forward by one speaker during the Surface Warships conference in London on 22 January 2025.
A new maritime context?
Currently, traditional surface combatants such as frigates and destroyers are taking on many different roles in major navies: from Anti-Air Warfare (AAW), Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), Mine Countermeasures (MCM), and as motherships for autonomous uncrewed systems.
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By GlobalDataIt is fair to say that the status quo risks these high-value combatants – armed to the teeth with all manner of combat and information systems on a single vessel – as targets to the adversary. Whereas, a distrbuted model would allow navies to hedge their bets at sea.
It is also true that this may avoid the kind of losses that have cut Russia’s Black Sea Fleet over the past three years. Ukraine’s asymmetric methods, such as the use of Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs), continue to chip away – albeit very slowly – at Russia’s long-range strike capabilities (used against Ukrainian infrastructure on land) and auxiliary support based at sea.
The distributed model is a tempting concept for middle-powers, such as the UK Royal Navy, which are strapped for cash and eager to extend their reach around the world. These factors come to play in the Royal Navy as the service has lately considered leaning on commercial vessels as “floating bases” for certain operations to bolster their numbers and capabilities.
Prevalence of platforms
However, the distributed model – rejecting the utility of conventional, multi-purpose warships – is a radical change from tradition.
Others were less enthused, with one person suggesting that the sector should not overeact to new innovation. There is no certainty when it comes to future capabilities while the threat landscape continues to evolve. There is still a need to future-proof platforms against emerging threats.
Likewise, GlobalData intelligence indicates that the conventional frigate segment will lead the ‘Global Naval Vessels and Surface Combatants Market’ between 2024 and 2034.
It is expected to account for a 27.4% revenue share of the total market over the forecast period, while the destroyer segment will follow with a 22.5% market share.
GlobalData added that “the demand for these multi-purpose surface combatants originates from major military powers, which are looking to procure heavily armed vessels to project power, defend their territorial waters, and protect high value assets such as aircraft carriers.”
The production of large-scale surface warships show no sign of abating. We need only look at the development of the Type 31 frigates, five of which are due to enter the UK Royal Navy in the early 2030s. Its design, led by industry, encompasses a wide range range of capabilities and systems.
Likewise, the US Navy began with a simple concept for its future Constellation-class frigates, based on the European FREMM design. However, this has barrelled into a much larger and exquisite platform than was originally intended.
