Eight Nato members have started to model and simulate hypersonic threats and countermeasures.
Nato’s Modelling and Simulation Group (MSG), which comes under the auspices of the alliance’s Science and Technology Organisation (STO), created a new ‘activity’ to that end in November 2024.
The concept driving this new activity is to develop what was described as a “common synthetic environment” to validate (even operate) offensive and defensive architectures for hypersonics.
“The physics are very complex,” observed Wim Huiskamp, a scientific adviser for MSG, in a briefing during IT²EC 2025 in Oslo on 25 March.
“You cannot always conduct real experiments. It’s quite expensive and difficult to organise. We use simulation to get an understanding [of] what hypersonic threats really involve, what the physical aspects are… the different stresses on the vehicle.”
According to GlobalData’s ‘Aerospace and Defence Predictions’ (2024), hypersonic weapon systems require specially designed aerostructures, engines and subcomponents made of ultra-high temperature (UHT) materials such as silicon nitride and thermoplastics to ensure structural integrity at ‘hypersonic’ speeds (above Mach 5, which is nearly 4,000 miles per hour, or 6,437 km/h).
“We use simulation to get an understanding [of] what hypersonic threats really involve, what the physical aspects are… the different stresses on the vehicle.”
Wim Huiskamp, Nato science adviser
Led by the Netherlands, this newfound modelling effort includes Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. The group of nations will convene meetings in Cologne, Germany in May 2025.
Typically, each nation participant will send two or three scientists; although there are “quite a few from Germany” he added without offering a fixed number.
Modelling hypersonic threats
The group will initially formulate high-level concept table-top games with an aim towards more detailed ‘Monte-Carlo runs’ – all to inform eventual field experiments.
Such efforts to model hypersonics would be informed by many factors, including data accrued from use cases in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Huiskamp told Naval Technology.
Russia flaunts its progress in hypersonic missiles, specifically the Kinzhal (ballistic) and Zircon (cruise) missiles, which have been used against Ukraine’s armed forces. However, there are practical limitations with these weapons as they lack manoeuvrability in flight despite the Kremlin’s claims that the missiles can reach up to Mach 10. In actual fact, the fully capable hypersonics segment is still in a nascent space, limited to the research and development phase.
“That’s part of the of the challenge,” Huiskamp added, “I believe, for that reason, this activity can go up to Nato secret [level of classification] this is typically classified information.”
Simulating threats and modelling outcomes in the virtual environment creates a safe space to preempt the effects of the future potential of hypersonics.
In the real world, the US is leading country in the hypersonics segment.. Two days ago (on 24 March), the US Missile Defense Agency and the US Navy jointly executed Flight Test Other-40 (FTX-40), or Stellar Banshee, off the coast of Hawaii.
USS Pinckney, a Flight IIA Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, demonstrated the ability to detect, track and perform a simulated engagement of a manoeuvring hypersonic target using the SBT Inc. 3 capability embedded in the latest Aegis software.
In recent years, the US Navy has touted the notion that the hypersonic interceptor, the Conventional Prompt Strike missile system will be integrated on the new generation Zumwalt-class destroyers (DDG 1000s).
In Europe, MBDA – the continent’s foremost complex weapon systems supplier – is best positioned to deliver systems as part of the European trend towards strategic autonomy, according to the group’s chief executive in a speech in Paris last week.
Likewise, MBDA’s UK entity is able to leverage its proprietary Digital Battlespace Facility, which reached full operational capability in 2023, as the company can de-risk the hypersonic and conventional systems alike.
