Top heavy, ageing, the UK Royal Navy is creaking at its bilges as decades of government procurement delays, misadventures into carrier strike, and a markedly more complex global security environment, are coming home to rust.

The Royal Navy’s surface fleet is now smaller than the navies of the two other main European Nato members’ navies – France and Italy – being on paper able to field just 16 major surface combatants, comprising two aircraft carriers, six destroyers and just eight frigates.

In reality, the availability of the 16 major surface combatants in the UK fleet is far lower, with the number of Type 23 frigates available for operations this year fluctuating between five and six hulls at any given time.

The remaining hulls ‘in service’ are being put through expensive and time-consuming service life and recertification programmes, with their replacement Type 26 and Type 32 vessels still years away from joining the Royal Navy surface fleet.

The number of Type 45 air defence destroyers is similarly reduced as vessels are taken offline to undergo rectification work to long-standing propulsion issues. As of 31 October 2024, of a fleet of six, two Type 45 destroyers were immediately available, or deployed.

Just eight destroyers or frigates were available for operations at the end of October 2024.

In addition, a remarkable statistic shows the top-heavy nature of the Royal Navy, with the two Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers comprising 59% of the service’s total tonnage among major surface combatants.

By contrast, the French Navy/Marine Nationale, can count 25 major surface combatants in its inventory, comprising one aircraft carrier, three amphibious assault ships, ten destroyers, and 11 frigates. Its single aircraft carrier, nuclear-powered compared to the UK’s conventional propulsion, represents 20% of the total tonnage of France’s fleet-level surface force.

Nato’s non-European leader, the US, has a naval force centred on the ability to project power through its massive Nimitz- and Ford-class aircraft carriers, whose gargantuan combined tonnage from 11 carriers of 1.13m represents 47% of its surface fleet.

The UK therefore has the highest ratio of aircraft carrier-per-other-surface-combatant-tonnage in the entire Nato alliance, and likely could take the global title.

European navies surpass UK in hull numbers

In further comparison with European navies, the Italian Navy has 21 major surface warships in its fleet inventory, comprising one aircraft carrier, three amphibious assault ships, three destroyers, and 14 frigates.

The UK’s numerical surface combatant count is nearly matched by Spain, which has the same number of major surface combatants of the Royal Navy, comprising one aircraft carrier/amphibious assault ship, two amphibious platform ships, and 11 frigates. Spain has more numerous offshore patrol vessels.

Longtime European rival Germany maintains more major surface combatants than the UK, with 16 hulls of either, destroyer, frigates, or corvette classification.

Where the UK has a conventional subsurface naval warfare edge over Italy is through its nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) fleet, of which it numbers five active Astute-class SSNs and single-remaining Trafalgar-class boat. However, France also maintains six active SSNs, so this subsurface advantage is negated.

A recent fire at the UK's nuclear submarine yard, where two Astute-class SSNs are in various states of build or systems trials, has further complicated matters.

Italy maintains eight conventionally powered diesel electric submarines, that, while capable, do not represent the same force effect as a nuclear-powered boat.

Can the Royal Navy salvage itself?

Depending on which side of the naval argument appeals, there are both positives and negatives on the horizon that could help or hinder, depending on perspective.

Optimists can point to the development of the eight Type 26 anti-submarine warfare frigates currently under development, along with the five Type 31 general purpose frigates also in build. These 13 warships will effectively replace the former 16-strong fleet of Type 23 frigates, which are now at half of the class’s original number.

Pessimists can point to the potential that outgoing Type 23 frigates, which have already have a head start of their in-build cousins, may not even be replaced on a like-for-like basis to maintain the paltry surface warfare fleet at 14 hulls.

The prospect of the Type 32 frigate, acting as some sort of naval drone hub, it also mooted, but this can be taken by pessimists pointing to the programme being at a pre-concept stage and potentially an easy one to ‘cut’ in next year’s Strategic Defence Review.

Then there is the possibility that one of the UK’s two aircraft carriers could head into mothballs to save money, although conversely, this would somewhat solve the current top-heavy imbalance in the Royal Navy’s surface fleet.

What is not up for debate is that the Royal Navy is at a low ebb, and hope must remain that this does not continue into an evaporation of the Senior Service’s surface warfighting capability.